Europa League (Europe) · Thu, Mar 12 · 20:00 · Celta de Vigo vs Olympique Lyonnais
Likeliest: Celta de Vigo win · 42%
We make it 61% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 49%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Celta de Vigo42%45%−3
OursMarket
Draw25%28%−2
OursMarket
Olympique Lyonnais33%27%+5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 49% | +12 |
| Both teams score | 62% | 54% | +8 |
| Double chance 1X | 67% | 73% | −5 |
| Double chance X2 | 58% | 55% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 72% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 56% | 62% | −6 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Celta de Vigo
WinWinWinWinLoss
- Mar 6 · v Real Madrid (H)1-2
- Mar 1 · at Girona (A)2-1
- Feb 26 · v PAOK (H)1-0
- Feb 22 · v Mallorca (H)2-0
- Feb 19 · at PAOK (A)2-1
Olympique Lyonnais
WinWinLossLossDraw
- Mar 8 · v Paris (H)1-1
- Mar 1 · at Olympique Marseille (A)2-3
- Feb 22 · at Strasbourg (A)1-3
- Feb 15 · v Nice (H)2-0
- Feb 7 · at Nantes (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | Celta de Vigo | Olympique Lyonnais |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 7-1-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-0-4 | 6-1-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.