La Liga (Spain) · Fri, Mar 6 · 20:00 · Celta de Vigo vs Real Madrid
Likeliest: Celta de Vigo win · 42%
A 42% home win. The market says 29%.
13 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Celta de Vigo42%29%+13
OursMarket
Draw23%27%−5
OursMarket
Real Madrid35%44%−9
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 53% | +10 |
| Both teams score | 65% | 58% | +7 |
| Double chance 1X | 65% | 56% | +9 |
| Double chance X2 | 58% | 71% | −13 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 73% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 54% | 39% | +15 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Celta de Vigo
DrawWinWinWinWin
- Mar 1 · at Girona (A)2-1
- Feb 26 · v PAOK (H)1-0
- Feb 22 · v Mallorca (H)2-0
- Feb 19 · at PAOK (A)2-1
- Feb 14 · at Espanyol (A)2-2
Real Madrid
WinWinLossWinLoss
- Mar 2 · v Getafe (H)0-1
- Feb 25 · v Benfica (H)2-1
- Feb 21 · at Osasuna (A)1-2
- Feb 17 · at Benfica (A)1-0
- Feb 14 · v Real Sociedad (H)4-1
| Last 10 games | Celta de Vigo | Real Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 7-0-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 2.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-0-4 | 6-1-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.