La Liga (Spain) · Sun, Apr 12 · 16:30 · Celta de Vigo vs Real Oviedo
Likeliest: Celta de Vigo win · 56%
We make it 54% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 48%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Celta de Vigo56%54%+2
OursMarket
Draw23%26%−3
OursMarket
Real Oviedo21%20%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 48% | +6 |
| Both teams score | 56% | 50% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 79% | 80% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 44% | 46% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 74% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 73% | 73% | −1 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Celta de Vigo
DrawWinLossWinLoss
- Apr 9 · at SC Freiburg (A)0-3
- Apr 5 · at Valencia (A)3-2
- Mar 22 · v Deportivo Alavés (H)3-4
- Mar 19 · at Olympique Lyonnais (A)2-0
- Mar 15 · at Real Betis (A)1-1
Real Oviedo
LossDrawWinLossWin
- Apr 5 · v Sevilla (H)1-0
- Mar 21 · at Levante (A)2-4
- Mar 14 · v Valencia (H)1-0
- Mar 9 · at Espanyol (A)1-1
- Mar 4 · at Rayo Vallecano (A)0-3
| Last 10 games | Celta de Vigo | Real Oviedo |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 0-3-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.