Europa League (Europe) · Thu, Apr 16 · 16:45 · Celta de Vigo vs SC Freiburg
Likeliest: Celta de Vigo win · 48%
We make it 58% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 51%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Celta de Vigo48%51%−2
OursMarket
Draw23%26%−3
OursMarket
SC Freiburg29%23%+5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 51% | +7 |
| Both teams score | 60% | 53% | +7 |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 77% | −5 |
| Double chance X2 | 52% | 49% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 74% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 63% | 68% | −6 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Celta de Vigo
WinLossWinLossLoss
- Apr 12 · v Real Oviedo (H)0-3
- Apr 9 · at SC Freiburg (A)0-3
- Apr 5 · at Valencia (A)3-2
- Mar 22 · v Deportivo Alavés (H)3-4
- Mar 19 · at Olympique Lyonnais (A)2-0
SC Freiburg
WinWinLossWinWin
- Apr 12 · at FSV Mainz 05 (A)1-0
- Apr 9 · v Celta de Vigo (H)3-0
- Apr 4 · v FC Bayern München (H)2-3
- Mar 22 · at St. Pauli (A)2-1
- Mar 19 · v Genk (H)5-1
| Last 10 games | Celta de Vigo | SC Freiburg |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-1-4 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.