La Liga (Spain) · Sat, May 23 · 19:00 · Celta de Vigo vs Sevilla
Likeliest: Celta de Vigo win · 49%
We make it 64% for both teams to score. The market says 52%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Celta de Vigo49%53%−4
OursMarket
Draw23%26%−2
OursMarket
Sevilla28%21%+6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% | 0 |
| Both teams score | 64% | 52% | +12 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 79% | −6 |
| Double chance X2 | 51% | 47% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 74% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 64% | 71% | −7 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Celta de Vigo
LossWinWinLossDraw
- May 17 · at Athletic Club (A)1-1
- May 12 · v Levante (H)2-3
- May 9 · at Atlético Madrid (A)1-0
- May 3 · v Elche (H)3-1
- Apr 26 · at Villarreal (A)1-2
Sevilla
LossWinWinWinLoss
- May 17 · v Real Madrid (H)0-1
- May 13 · at Villarreal (A)3-2
- May 9 · v Espanyol (H)2-1
- May 4 · v Real Sociedad (H)1-0
- Apr 26 · at Osasuna (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | Celta de Vigo | Sevilla |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-1-6 | 4-0-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-1-6 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.