La Liga (Spain) · Sat, Jan 3 · 13:00 · Celta de Vigo vs Valencia
Likeliest: Celta de Vigo win · 57%
A 57% home win. The market says 48%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Celta de Vigo57%48%+8
OursMarket
Draw24%29%−4
OursMarket
Valencia19%23%−4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 44% | +4 |
| Both teams score | 49% | 49% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 81% | 77% | +4 |
| Double chance X2 | 43% | 52% | −8 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 71% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 75% | 68% | +7 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Celta de Vigo
WinLossWinDrawDraw
- Dec 20 · at Real Oviedo (A)0-0
- Dec 17 · at Albacete (A)2-2
- Dec 14 · v Athletic Club (H)2-0
- Dec 11 · v Bologna (H)1-2
- Dec 7 · at Real Madrid (A)2-0
Valencia
WinDrawLossWinDraw
- Dec 19 · v Mallorca (H)1-1
- Dec 16 · at Sporting Gijón (A)2-0
- Dec 13 · at Atlético Madrid (A)1-2
- Dec 7 · v Sevilla (H)1-1
- Dec 4 · at FC Cartagena (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | Celta de Vigo | Valencia |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 4-4-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-4-3 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.