La Liga (Spain) · Sun, Aug 30 · 19:30 · Celta Vigo vs Athletic Club
Likeliest: Celta Vigo win · 65%
We make it 57% for both teams to score. The market says 51%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Celta Vigo65%40%+25
OursMarket
Draw19%29%−10
OursMarket
Athletic Club16%31%−15
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 45% | +2 |
| Both teams score | 57% | 51% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 84% | 69% | +15 |
| Double chance X2 | 35% | 60% | −25 |
| Double chance 12 | 81% | 71% | +10 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 80% | 56% | +24 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Celta Vigo
DrawLoss
- Aug 27 · v Osasuna (H)1-2
- Aug 22 · at Valencia (A)0-0
Athletic Club
LossLossLossLossLoss
- Aug 28 · at Náutico (A)1-2
- Aug 27 · at Barcelona (A)0-2
- Aug 24 · v Novorizontino (H)1-4
- Aug 22 · v Sevilla (H)1-3
- Aug 20 · v CRB (H)0-2
| Last 10 games | Celta Vigo | Athletic Club |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | — | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | — | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | — | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | — | 50% |
| Both teams scored | — | 60% |
| Clean sheets | — | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 3-4-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.