La Liga (Spain) · Sun, Oct 18 · 14:15 · Celta Vigo vs Deportivo Alavés
Likeliest: Celta Vigo win · 47%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 47% for the home win. The market says 47%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Celta Vigo47%47%−1
OursMarket
Draw30%28%+2
OursMarket
Deportivo Alavés24%25%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 73% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 45% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 51% | 49% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 75% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 53% | 53% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 72% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 66% | 66% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.0 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Celta Vigo
DrawLossWinDrawLoss
- Oct 15 · v Juventus (H)1-2
- Oct 11 · at Elche (A)0-0
- Sep 19 · v Racing de Santander (H)5-0
- Sep 16 · at Omonia Nicosia (A)0-1
- Sep 13 · v Málaga (H)1-1
Deportivo Alavés
WinLossLossDrawLoss
- Oct 10 · v Atletico Madrid (H)1-2
- Sep 19 · at Athletic Club (A)0-0
- Sep 15 · v Valencia (H)0-1
- Sep 12 · at Racing de Santander (A)1-2
- Sep 6 · v Osasuna (H)5-2
| Last 10 games | Celta Vigo | Deportivo Alavés |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-5-4 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-1-3 | 2-4-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.