La Liga (Spain) · Sun, Sep 13 · 12:00 · Celta Vigo vs Málaga
Likeliest: Celta Vigo win · 58%
A tight one: we make it 58% for the home win. The market says 56%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Celta Vigo58%56%+2
OursMarket
Draw26%26%0
OursMarket
Málaga17%18%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 45% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 48% | 47% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 84% | 82% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 42% | 44% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 74% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 78% | 75% | +3 |
| Expected goals | 0.9 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Celta Vigo
DrawLossLossDrawDraw
- Sep 7 · at Getafe (A)1-1
- Sep 3 · at Real Sociedad (A)0-0
- Aug 30 · v Athletic Club (H)0-2
- Aug 27 · v Osasuna (H)1-2
- Aug 22 · at Valencia (A)0-0
Málaga
WinLossDrawLossDraw
- Sep 6 · v Levante UD (H)0-0
- Aug 30 · at Real Madrid (A)0-4
- Aug 24 · v Deportivo La Coruña (H)1-1
- Aug 19 · at Atletico Madrid (A)0-2
- Jun 20 · at Almería (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | Celta Vigo | Málaga |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 0-3-2 | 3-5-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 5-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.