La Liga (Spain) · Thu, Aug 27 · 18:30 · Celta Vigo vs Osasuna
Likeliest: Celta Vigo win · 52%
We make it 56% for both teams to score. The market says 49%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Celta Vigo52%49%+3
OursMarket
Draw24%28%−4
OursMarket
Osasuna24%24%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 45% | 0 |
| Both teams score | 56% | 49% | +7 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 76% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 48% | 51% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 72% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 68% | 67% | +1 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Celta Vigo
Draw
- Aug 22 · at Valencia (A)0-0
Osasuna
LossLossLossLossDraw
- Aug 24 · v Levante UD (H)0-0
- May 23 · at Getafe (A)0-1
- May 17 · v Espanyol (H)1-2
- May 12 · v Atlético Madrid (H)1-2
- May 8 · at Levante (A)2-3
| Last 10 games | Celta Vigo | Osasuna |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | — | 1-3-6 |
| Goals scored a game | — | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | — | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | — | 60% |
| Both teams scored | — | 70% |
| Clean sheets | — | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.