La Liga (Spain) · Sat, Sep 19 · 16:30 · Celta Vigo vs Racing de Santander
Likeliest: Celta Vigo win · 53%
A tight one: we make it 53% for the home win. The market says 52%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Celta Vigo53%52%+1
OursMarket
Draw25%24%+1
OursMarket
Racing de Santander22%23%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 58% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 61% | 58% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 78% | 77% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 47% | 48% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 76% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 71% | 69% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Celta Vigo
LossDrawDrawDrawLoss
- Sep 16 · at Omonia Nicosia (A)0-1
- Sep 13 · v Málaga (H)1-1
- Sep 7 · at Getafe (A)1-1
- Sep 3 · at Real Sociedad (A)0-0
- Aug 30 · v Athletic Club (H)0-2
Racing de Santander
LossWinLossWinLoss
- Sep 16 · at Barcelona (A)2-7
- Sep 12 · v Deportivo Alavés (H)2-1
- Sep 5 · at Rayo Vallecano (A)2-3
- Aug 28 · v Elche (H)3-2
- Aug 23 · at Getafe (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Celta Vigo | Racing de Santander |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 0-4-3 | 3-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.4 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 2.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 14% | 75% |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 88% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.