La Liga (Spain) · Sun, Oct 25 · 15:15 · Celta Vigo vs Real Betis
Likeliest: Real Betis win · 39%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 39% for the away win. The market says 38%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Celta Vigo32%34%−3
OursMarket
Draw29%27%+2
OursMarket
Real Betis39%38%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 52% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | 57% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 61% | 62% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 68% | 66% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 73% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 45% | 47% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Celta Vigo
LossWinDrawLossWin
- Oct 18 · v Deportivo Alavés (H)2-1
- Oct 15 · v Juventus (H)1-2
- Oct 11 · at Elche (A)0-0
- Sep 19 · v Racing de Santander (H)5-0
- Sep 16 · at Omonia Nicosia (A)0-1
Real Betis
WinDrawWinWinLoss
- Oct 17 · v Barcelona (H)2-5
- Oct 14 · v FC Porto (H)3-2
- Oct 11 · v Osasuna (H)5-2
- Sep 20 · at Deportivo La Coruña (A)1-1
- Sep 17 · v Getafe (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Celta Vigo | Real Betis |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-4-4 | 7-1-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-1-3 | 4-4-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.