Europa League (Europe) · Thu, Oct 22 · 19:00 · Celtic vs Celta Vigo
Likeliest: Celta Vigo win · 43%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 43% for the away win. The market says 41%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Celtic30%32%−2
OursMarket
Draw27%27%+1
OursMarket
Celta Vigo43%41%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 53% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 55% | 56% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 57% | 59% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 70% | 68% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 73% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 41% | 44% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.9 | 0.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Celtic
LossLossWinLossWin
- Oct 18 · v Hearts (H)7-1
- Oct 15 · at Benfica (A)1-4
- Oct 11 · at Motherwell (A)2-0
- Sep 20 · v Rangers (H)0-1
- Sep 17 · v Ferencváros TC (H)1-3
Celta Vigo
LossWinDrawLossWin
- Oct 18 · v Deportivo Alavés (H)2-1
- Oct 15 · v Juventus (H)1-2
- Oct 11 · at Elche (A)0-0
- Sep 19 · v Racing de Santander (H)5-0
- Sep 16 · at Omonia Nicosia (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Celtic | Celta Vigo |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-0-4 | 2-4-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-0-2 | 0-4-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.