Europa League (Europe) · Thu, Sep 17 · 19:00 · Celtic vs Ferencváros TC
Likeliest: Celtic win · 56%
A tight one: we make it 56% for the home win. The market says 56%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Celtic56%56%+1
OursMarket
Draw23%23%0
OursMarket
Ferencváros TC21%21%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 62% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 64% | 61% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 79% | 79% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 44% | 44% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 77% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 73% | 73% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Celtic
LossWinWinWinWin
- Sep 9 · at St. Johnstone (A)1-0
- Sep 5 · at St. Mirren (A)2-1
- Sep 2 · v Aberdeen (H)3-0
- Aug 29 · v Falkirk FC (H)2-1
- Aug 25 · at LASK (A)1-4
Ferencváros TC
WinWinWinDrawWin
- Sep 12 · at Debreceni EAC (A)7-0
- Sep 6 · v Újpest (H)2-2
- Sep 3 · at ETO FC Győr (A)3-0
- Aug 30 · at Puskás Akadémia (A)2-1
- Aug 27 · v Trabzonspor (H)4-0
| Last 10 games | Celtic | Ferencváros TC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 9-0-1 | 7-3-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.4 | 2.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 70% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 9-0-1 | 7-1-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.