Premiership (Scotland) · Sun, Sep 20 · 11:00 · Celtic vs Rangers
Likeliest: Celtic win · 47%
A tight one: we make it 47% for the home win. The market says 47%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Celtic47%47%0
OursMarket
Draw25%25%0
OursMarket
Rangers28%28%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 61% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 64% | 63% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 72% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 53% | 53% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 75% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 63% | 63% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 2.0 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Celtic
WinWinWinWinLoss
- Sep 17 · v Ferencváros TC (H)1-3
- Sep 9 · at St. Johnstone (A)1-0
- Sep 5 · at St. Mirren (A)2-1
- Sep 2 · v Aberdeen (H)3-0
- Aug 29 · v Falkirk FC (H)2-1
Rangers
LossWinWinWinWin
- Sep 9 · v St. Mirren (H)1-0
- Sep 5 · v Motherwell (H)1-0
- Sep 2 · at Falkirk FC (A)2-1
- Aug 30 · at Aberdeen (A)1-0
- Aug 27 · at FK Jablonec (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Celtic | Rangers |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 8-0-2 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.2 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 9-0-1 | 5-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.