Africa Cup of Nations Qualifiers · Mon, Sep 28 · 16:00 · Central African Republic vs Burkina Faso
Likeliest: Burkina Faso win · 40%
We make it 68% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 49%.
20 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Central African Republic25%8%+17
OursMarket
Draw35%17%+18
OursMarket
Burkina Faso40%75%−35
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 60% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 32% | 51% | −20 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 14% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 40% | 40% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 60% | 25% | +35 |
| Double chance X2 | 75% | 92% | −17 |
| Double chance 12 | 65% | 83% | −18 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 38% | 10% | +29 |
| Expected goals | 0.7 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Central African Republic
DrawDrawWinLossLoss
- Sep 24 · at Mauritania (A)1-3
- Jun 9 · at Angola (A)0-3
- Jun 9 · at Angola (A)3-0
- Jun 5 · v Togo (H)1-1
- Jul 27 · at Guinea (A)1-1
Burkina Faso
WinDrawLossDrawDraw
- Sep 25 · v Benin (H)0-0
- Jun 9 · at Belarus (A)2-2
- Jun 5 · at Russia (A)0-3
- Mar 31 · v Guinea-Bissau (H)1-1
- Mar 28 · v Guinea-Bissau (H)5-0
| Last 10 games | Central African Republic | Burkina Faso |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-2 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 2-1-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.