A-League Men (Australia) · Sat, Oct 17 · 08:40 · Central Coast Mariners vs Newcastle Jets
Likeliest: Newcastle Jets win · 58%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 58% for the away win. The market says 54%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Central Coast Mariners20%24%−4
OursMarket
Draw23%22%+1
OursMarket
Newcastle Jets58%54%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 84% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 67% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 65% | 66% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 43% | 46% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 80% | 76% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 78% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 25% | 30% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 2.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Central Coast Mariners
DrawLossDrawWinLoss
- Apr 25 · at Newcastle Jets (A)0-4
- Apr 19 · at Auckland (A)1-0
- Apr 10 · v Brisbane Roar (H)2-2
- Apr 7 · at Melbourne City (A)1-2
- Apr 4 · v Perth Glory (H)2-2
Newcastle Jets
WinDrawDrawLossLoss
- Oct 13 · v Gamba Osaka (H)1-3
- Sep 15 · at Kashima Antlers (A)1-7
- May 16 · v Sydney (H)1-1
- May 9 · at Sydney (A)1-1
- Apr 25 · v Central Coast Mariners (H)4-0
| Last 10 games | Central Coast Mariners | Newcastle Jets |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 2-4-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 2.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 90% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-5-3 | 5-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.