Campeonato de Reserva de Primera División (Argentina) · Thu, Oct 15 · 22:00 · Central Cordoba Reserve vs Belgrano Reserve
Likeliest: Belgrano Reserve win · 46%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 46% for the away win. The market says 44%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Central Cordoba Reserve26%30%−4
OursMarket
Draw28%26%+2
OursMarket
Belgrano Reserve46%44%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 70% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 53% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 49% | 54% | −5 |
| Double chance 1X | 54% | 56% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 74% | 70% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 74% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 36% | 41% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Central Cordoba Reserve
LossWinLossDrawLoss
- Oct 8 · at Lanús Reserve (A)0-3
- Sep 30 · v Newell's Old Boys Reserve (H)1-1
- Sep 22 · v Atlético Tucumán Reserve (H)0-1
- Sep 15 · at Defensa y Justicia Reserve (A)3-2
- Sep 9 · v Estudiantes de Río Cuarto Reserve (H)1-2
Belgrano Reserve
WinWinDrawDrawWin
- Oct 8 · v San Martin Reserve (H)3-2
- Sep 30 · at Independiente Rivadavia De Mendoza Reserve (A)0-0
- Sep 23 · v Talleres de Córdoba Reserve (H)1-1
- Sep 17 · v CD Riestra Reserve (H)2-1
- Sep 8 · at Colón Reserve (A)3-1
| Last 10 games | Central Cordoba Reserve | Belgrano Reserve |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 6-3-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-2-3 | 2-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.