Liga Profesional de Fútbol (Argentina) · Mon, Oct 26 · 00:30 · Central Córdoba vs Vélez Sarsfield
Likeliest: Vélez Sarsfield win · 38%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 38% for the away win. The market says 38%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Central Córdoba30%33%−3
OursMarket
Draw32%29%+2
OursMarket
Vélez Sarsfield38%38%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 67% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 40% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 52% | 48% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 62% | 62% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 70% | 67% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 69% | 71% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 44% | 47% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Central Córdoba
LossDrawDrawDrawLoss
- Oct 19 · at Newell's Old Boys (A)1-2
- Oct 10 · v Estudiantes de La Plata (H)2-2
- Oct 5 · at Deportivo Riestra (A)1-1
- Sep 18 · v Defensa y Justicia (H)2-2
- Sep 12 · at Boca Juniors (A)1-3
Vélez Sarsfield
DrawWinDrawLossWin
- Oct 17 · v Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza (H)1-0
- Oct 12 · at Lanús (A)0-2
- Oct 5 · v Platense (H)2-2
- Sep 21 · v Tigre (H)3-2
- Sep 11 · at Newell's Old Boys (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Central Córdoba | Vélez Sarsfield |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-4-5 | 3-6-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-5 | 2-6-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.