Primera Division (Uruguay) · Sat, Oct 24 · 13:00 · Central Español vs Albion FC
Likeliest: Albion FC win · 36%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 36% for the away win. The market says 36%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Central Español32%35%−3
OursMarket
Draw32%30%+2
OursMarket
Albion FC36%36%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 71% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 44% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 51% | 50% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 64% | 64% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 68% | 65% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 68% | 70% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 47% | 49% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Central Español
LossLossLossLossLoss
- Oct 18 · at Danubio (A)0-1
- Oct 11 · v Nacional (H)0-1
- Oct 3 · at Deportivo Maldonado (A)0-3
- Sep 27 · v Liverpool UY (H)1-2
- Sep 21 · v Montevideo City Torque (H)1-4
Albion FC
LossLossWinWinWin
- Oct 18 · v Montevideo City Torque (H)2-1
- Oct 11 · at Cerro Largo (A)1-0
- Oct 3 · v Defensor Sporting (H)3-2
- Sep 28 · at Montevideo Wanderers (A)1-2
- Sep 20 · v Juventud de Las Piedras (H)1-3
| Last 10 games | Central Español | Albion FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 0-2-8 | 3-0-7 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.4 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-4-5 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.