Primera Division (Uruguay) · Sun, Oct 11 · 21:30 · Central Español vs Nacional
Likeliest: Nacional win · 63%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 63% for the away win. The market says 60%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Central Español12%16%−4
OursMarket
Draw24%23%+1
OursMarket
Nacional63%60%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 71% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 52% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 52% | 49% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 37% | 40% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 88% | 84% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 77% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 16% | 21% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 1.0 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Central Español
DrawDrawLossLossLoss
- Oct 3 · at Deportivo Maldonado (A)0-3
- Sep 27 · v Liverpool UY (H)1-2
- Sep 21 · v Montevideo City Torque (H)1-4
- Sep 12 · at Cerro Largo (A)0-0
- Sep 6 · v Defensor Sporting (H)1-1
Nacional
DrawDrawWinDrawWin
- Oct 5 · v Montevideo City Torque (H)2-0
- Sep 26 · at Cerro Largo (A)0-0
- Sep 20 · v Defensor Sporting (H)3-2
- Sep 12 · at Montevideo Wanderers (A)1-1
- Sep 6 · v Juventud de Las Piedras (H)2-2
| Last 10 games | Central Español | Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-3-6 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.5 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-4-4 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.