Primera Nacional (Argentina) · Sat, Oct 10 · 20:00 · Central Norte de Salta vs Club Ferro Carril Oeste
Likeliest: Club Ferro Carril Oeste win · 38%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 38% for the away win. The market says 38%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Central Norte de Salta24%28%−3
OursMarket
Draw37%34%+3
OursMarket
Club Ferro Carril Oeste38%38%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 62% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 25% | 26% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 16% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 36% | 34% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 62% | 62% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 76% | 72% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 63% | 66% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 39% | 42% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 0.9 | 0.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Central Norte de Salta
DrawDrawLossDrawDraw
- Oct 3 · v Racing de Córdoba (H)1-1
- Sep 26 · at Deportivo Madryn (A)0-0
- Sep 20 · v Defensores de Belgrano (H)0-1
- Sep 12 · at Ciudad de Bolivar (A)0-0
- Sep 6 · v Almirante Brown (H)0-0
Club Ferro Carril Oeste
DrawDrawWinWinLoss
- Oct 2 · v Deportivo Madryn (H)0-2
- Sep 26 · at Defensores de Belgrano (A)1-0
- Sep 19 · v Ciudad de Bolivar (H)1-0
- Sep 13 · at Almirante Brown (A)0-0
- Sep 4 · v Mitre (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | Central Norte de Salta | Club Ferro Carril Oeste |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-8-1 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.4 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.4 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 10% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-4-1 | 2-2-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.