Premier League (Egypt) · Wed, Oct 21 · 17:00 · Ceramica Cleopatra vs Petrojet
Likeliest: Ceramica Cleopatra win · 43%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 43% for the home win. The market says 44%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Ceramica Cleopatra43%44%−1
OursMarket
Draw36%33%+3
OursMarket
Petrojet21%22%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 70% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 44% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 49% | 49% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 79% | 78% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 57% | 56% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 64% | 67% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 67% | 66% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Ceramica Cleopatra
WinWinWinWinLoss
- Oct 12 · at Pyramids FC (A)1-4
- Sep 14 · v National Bank of Egypt (H)2-0
- Sep 8 · at Smouha (A)2-0
- Sep 2 · v Modern Sport FC (H)2-0
- Aug 28 · at Al-Ittihad Alexandria (A)3-1
Petrojet
LossLossWinWinDraw
- Oct 13 · v Wadi Degla (H)2-2
- Sep 16 · at El Gouna FC (A)2-1
- Sep 7 · v Al-Masry (H)2-1
- Aug 31 · at Zamalek SC (A)1-2
- Aug 26 · v Tala'ea El-Gaish (H)2-3
| Last 10 games | Ceramica Cleopatra | Petrojet |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 90% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-4-2 | 4-4-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.