Pro League (Belgium) · Sun, Sep 6 · 11:30 · Cercle Brugge vs KAA Gent
Likeliest: Cercle Brugge win · 44%
A 44% home win. The market says 33%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Cercle Brugge44%33%+11
OursMarket
Draw24%26%−2
OursMarket
KAA Gent32%40%−9
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 57% | −4 |
| Both teams score | 58% | 60% | −3 |
| Double chance 1X | 68% | 60% | +9 |
| Double chance X2 | 56% | 67% | −11 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 74% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 58% | 45% | +13 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Cercle Brugge
LossDrawDrawLossLoss
- Aug 29 · v Lommel SK (H)0-1
- Aug 23 · at Club Brugge KV (A)0-1
- Aug 14 · v Sint-Truidense VV (H)3-3
- Aug 8 · at Standard Liège (A)2-2
- May 9 · at La Louvière (A)1-4
KAA Gent
WinDrawWinWinWin
- Sep 3 · v Oud-Heverlee Leuven (H)1-0
- Aug 30 · v Club Brugge KV (H)2-1
- Aug 27 · at Hibernian (A)3-2
- Aug 20 · v Hibernian (H)0-0
- Aug 16 · at RAAL La Louvière (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | Cercle Brugge | KAA Gent |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 6-4-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 60% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-3-5 | 3-1-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.