Pro League (Belgium) · Sat, Aug 29 · 18:45 · Cercle Brugge vs Lommel SK
Likeliest: Cercle Brugge win · 52%
We make it 53% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 38%.
15 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Cercle Brugge52%62%−10
OursMarket
Draw22%21%+1
OursMarket
Lommel SK26%17%+9
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 63% | −15 |
| Both teams score | 54% | 59% | −5 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 83% | −9 |
| Double chance X2 | 48% | 38% | +10 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 79% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 67% | 79% | −12 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Cercle Brugge
LossLossDrawDrawLoss
- Aug 23 · at Club Brugge KV (A)0-1
- Aug 14 · v Sint-Truidense VV (H)3-3
- Aug 8 · at Standard Liège (A)2-2
- May 9 · at La Louvière (A)1-4
- May 1 · v Zulte-Waregem (H)2-3
Lommel SK
WinWinDrawLossWin
- Aug 23 · v KVC Westerlo (H)4-0
- Aug 16 · v RC Sporting Charleroi (H)0-1
- Aug 8 · at Sint-Truidense VV (A)1-1
- May 9 · at K. Beerschot V.A. (A)3-1
- May 2 · v K. Beerschot V.A. (H)3-1
| Last 10 games | Cercle Brugge | Lommel SK |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.2 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-3-5 | 5-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.