J-League (Japan) · Sun, Oct 25 · 06:00 · Cerezo Osaka vs JEF United Chiba
Likeliest: Cerezo Osaka win · 59%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 59% for the home win. No bookmaker price yet to compare it against.
Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night, priced or not.
Who wins
Cerezo Osaka59%——
OursMarket
Draw22%——
OursMarket
JEF United Chiba19%——
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | — | — |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 81% | — | — |
| Double chance X2 | 41% | — | — |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | — | — |
| Draw no bet (home) | 76% | — | — |
| Expected goals | 2.1 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Cerezo Osaka
LossDrawWinDrawLoss
- Oct 17 · v Kawasaki Frontale (H)2-4
- Oct 10 · v Yokohama F. Marinos (H)0-0
- Oct 7 · v Kagoshima United (H)2-0
- Sep 19 · at V-Varen Nagasaki (A)1-1
- Sep 12 · at Sanfrecce Hiroshima (A)1-6
JEF United Chiba
DrawLossLossDrawDraw
- Oct 17 · v Yokohama F. Marinos (H)0-0
- Oct 11 · v V-Varen Nagasaki (H)1-1
- Oct 7 · at Fagiano Okayama (A)0-1
- Sep 19 · at Shimizu S-Pulse (A)1-2
- Sep 13 · at Tokyo Verdy (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Cerezo Osaka | JEF United Chiba |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 1-3-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-3-1 | 0-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.