J-League (Japan) · Sat, Oct 17 · 06:00 · Cerezo Osaka vs Kawasaki Frontale
Likeliest: Kawasaki Frontale win · 42%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 42% for the away win. The market says 41%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Cerezo Osaka32%34%−3
OursMarket
Draw27%25%+1
OursMarket
Kawasaki Frontale42%41%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 62% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 61% | 65% | −4 |
| Double chance 1X | 58% | 59% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 69% | 66% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 43% | 46% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 1.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Cerezo Osaka
DrawLossDrawWinDraw
- Oct 10 · v Yokohama F. Marinos (H)0-0
- Oct 7 · v Kagoshima United (H)2-0
- Sep 19 · at V-Varen Nagasaki (A)1-1
- Sep 12 · at Sanfrecce Hiroshima (A)1-6
- Sep 6 · v Tokyo Verdy (H)0-0
Kawasaki Frontale
WinWinDrawWinLoss
- Oct 11 · v Nagoya Grampus (H)1-2
- Oct 7 · v Tegevajaro Miyazaki (H)2-0
- Sep 19 · v Kashima Antlers (H)3-3
- Sep 12 · at Mito Hollyhock (A)1-0
- Sep 6 · v Shimizu S-Pulse (H)3-1
| Last 10 games | Cerezo Osaka | Kawasaki Frontale |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 4-4-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-4-0 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.