J-League (Japan) · Sat, Oct 10 · 05:00 · Cerezo Osaka vs Yokohama F. Marinos
Likeliest: Cerezo Osaka win · 42%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 42% for the home win. The market says 43%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Cerezo Osaka42%43%−1
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+1
OursMarket
Yokohama F. Marinos31%31%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 57% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 59% | 56% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 69% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 58% | 57% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 58% | 58% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Cerezo Osaka
WinDrawLossDrawWin
- Oct 7 · v Kagoshima United (H)2-0
- Sep 19 · at V-Varen Nagasaki (A)1-1
- Sep 12 · at Sanfrecce Hiroshima (A)1-6
- Sep 6 · v Tokyo Verdy (H)0-0
- Sep 2 · v Kashiwa Reysol (H)2-0
Yokohama F. Marinos
DrawWinDrawWinWin
- Oct 7 · v Kyoto Sangyo University (H)2-1
- Sep 19 · v Mito Hollyhock (H)2-0
- Sep 12 · at Machida Zelvia (A)1-1
- Sep 6 · at Kashiwa Reysol (A)2-0
- Sep 2 · v Kyoto Sanga FC (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Cerezo Osaka | Yokohama F. Marinos |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-3-0 | 5-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.