Primera Division (Uruguay) · Sun, Oct 11 · 18:00 · Cerro Largo vs Albion FC
Likeliest: Cerro Largo win · 36%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 36% for the home win. The market says 38%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Cerro Largo36%38%−2
OursMarket
Draw32%30%+2
OursMarket
Albion FC33%33%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 69% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 43% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 54% | 50% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 68% | 67% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 65% | 62% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 68% | 70% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 52% | 54% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Cerro Largo
LossDrawLossDrawLoss
- Oct 4 · at Danubio (A)1-2
- Sep 26 · v Nacional (H)0-0
- Sep 19 · at Deportivo Maldonado (A)0-2
- Sep 12 · v Central Español (H)0-0
- Sep 4 · at Montevideo City Torque (A)1-2
Albion FC
LossLossLossLossWin
- Oct 3 · v Defensor Sporting (H)3-2
- Sep 28 · at Montevideo Wanderers (A)1-2
- Sep 20 · v Juventud de Las Piedras (H)1-3
- Sep 13 · at Peñarol (A)1-3
- Sep 7 · v Progreso (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | Cerro Largo | Albion FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 0-6-4 | 1-1-8 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.6 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-6-2 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.