Primera Division (Uruguay) · Sun, Oct 25 · 19:00 · Cerro Largo vs Boston River
Likeliest: Boston River win · 35%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 35% for the away win. The market says 35%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Cerro Largo31%34%−3
OursMarket
Draw33%31%+3
OursMarket
Boston River35%35%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 67% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 41% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 50% | 46% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 65% | 65% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 69% | 66% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 67% | 69% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 47% | 49% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Cerro Largo
LossDrawLossLossDraw
- Oct 16 · at Cerro (A)1-1
- Oct 11 · v Albion FC (H)0-1
- Oct 4 · at Danubio (A)1-2
- Sep 26 · v Nacional (H)0-0
- Sep 19 · at Deportivo Maldonado (A)0-2
Boston River
LossLossDrawWinWin
- Oct 17 · v Defensor Sporting (H)1-0
- Oct 10 · at Montevideo Wanderers (A)3-1
- Oct 4 · v Juventud de Las Piedras (H)0-0
- Sep 26 · at Peñarol (A)1-2
- Sep 19 · v Progreso (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | Cerro Largo | Boston River |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 0-6-4 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.6 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-6-2 | 3-1-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.