Copa Libertadores (South America) · Wed, Aug 19 · 22:00 · Cerro Porteño vs Palmeiras
Likeliest: Palmeiras win · 39%
A 35% home win. The market says 18%.
17 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Cerro Porteño35%18%+17
OursMarket
Draw26%27%−1
OursMarket
Palmeiras39%55%−16
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 35% | 40% | −5 |
| Both teams score | 48% | 41% | +7 |
| Double chance 1X | 61% | 45% | +16 |
| Double chance X2 | 65% | 82% | −17 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 73% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 47% | 25% | +22 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Cerro Porteño
WinWinWinWinDraw
- Aug 12 · at Palmeiras (A)0-0
- May 28 · v Club Sporting Cristal (H)2-0
- May 28 · v Sporting Cristal (H)2-0
- May 24 · v Rubio Ñu (H)2-0
- May 21 · at Palmeiras (A)1-0
Palmeiras
WinLossDrawDrawLoss
- Aug 15 · at Fluminense (A)2-3
- Aug 12 · v Cerro Porteño (H)0-0
- Aug 9 · v Internacional (H)0-0
- Aug 6 · at Fortaleza (A)2-3
- Aug 2 · v Fortaleza (H)3-0
| Last 10 games | Cerro Porteño | Palmeiras |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-3-1 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.2 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 0% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 10% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 80% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 6-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.