Primera Division (Uruguay) · Fri, Oct 16 · 22:00 · Cerro vs Cerro Largo
Likeliest: Cerro win · 36%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 36% for the home win. The market says 38%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Cerro36%38%−2
OursMarket
Draw33%30%+3
OursMarket
Cerro Largo31%32%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 63% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 41% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 16% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 43% | 44% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 68% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 64% | 62% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 67% | 70% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 53% | 55% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 0.9 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Cerro
WinLossDrawLossDraw
- Oct 10 · at Defensor Sporting (A)0-0
- Oct 4 · v Montevideo Wanderers (H)0-2
- Sep 27 · at Juventud de Las Piedras (A)0-0
- Sep 19 · v Peñarol (H)1-2
- Sep 13 · at Progreso (A)3-1
Cerro Largo
DrawLossDrawLossLoss
- Oct 11 · v Albion FC (H)0-1
- Oct 4 · at Danubio (A)1-2
- Sep 26 · v Nacional (H)0-0
- Sep 19 · at Deportivo Maldonado (A)0-2
- Sep 12 · v Central Español (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | Cerro | Cerro Largo |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 0-6-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-1-4 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.