Primera Division (Uruguay) · Sun, Oct 4 · 19:00 · Cerro vs Montevideo Wanderers
Likeliest: Montevideo Wanderers win · 38%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 38% for the away win. The market says 38%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Cerro29%32%−3
OursMarket
Draw33%29%+3
OursMarket
Montevideo Wanderers38%38%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 69% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 40% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 50% | 46% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 62% | 62% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 71% | 68% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 67% | 71% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 43% | 46% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.0 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Cerro
DrawWinWinLossDraw
- Sep 27 · at Juventud de Las Piedras (A)0-0
- Sep 19 · v Peñarol (H)1-2
- Sep 13 · at Progreso (A)3-1
- Sep 6 · v Racing de Montevideo (H)1-0
- Aug 29 · at Boston River (A)1-1
Montevideo Wanderers
WinLossDrawDrawWin
- Sep 28 · v Albion FC (H)2-1
- Sep 20 · at Danubio (A)1-1
- Sep 12 · v Nacional (H)1-1
- Sep 5 · at Deportivo Maldonado (A)0-2
- Aug 28 · v Central Español (H)3-0
| Last 10 games | Cerro | Montevideo Wanderers |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 5-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.