Serie B (Italy) · Sat, Sep 12 · 17:30 · Cesena vs Cremonese
Likeliest: Cremonese win · 41%
A tight one: we make it 41% for the away win. The market says 41%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Cesena27%29%−3
OursMarket
Draw32%30%+2
OursMarket
Cremonese41%41%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 73% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 48% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | 55% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 59% | 59% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 74% | 71% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 68% | 70% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 39% | 41% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Cesena
LossLossDrawWinDraw
- Sep 6 · v Mantova (H)1-1
- Aug 29 · at Virtus Entella (A)2-1
- Aug 23 · v Sampdoria (H)1-1
- Aug 17 · at Sassuolo (A)0-3
- May 8 · v Calcio Padova (H)3-4
Cremonese
WinLossLossWinWin
- Sep 6 · v Padova (H)3-1
- Sep 1 · at Parma (A)2-0
- Aug 28 · v Modena (H)0-3
- Aug 22 · at Empoli (A)0-1
- Aug 17 · v Sampdoria (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | Cesena | Cremonese |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-5-4 | 5-0-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-5-4 | 3-0-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.