Liga Portugal (Portugal) · Sat, Oct 24 · 14:30 · CF Estrela Amadora vs Casa Pia
Likeliest: CF Estrela Amadora win · 56%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 56% for the home win. The market says 55%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
CF Estrela Amadora56%55%+1
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+1
OursMarket
Casa Pia18%19%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 48% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 51% | 50% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 83% | 81% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 44% | 45% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 76% | 74% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
CF Estrela Amadora
WinDrawLossLossWin
- Oct 17 · at AD Fazendense (A)2-1
- Oct 11 · at FC Arouca (A)0-1
- Sep 20 · v Académico Viseu FC (H)0-2
- Sep 14 · at Rio Ave (A)3-3
- Sep 10 · v Sporting Braga (H)2-1
Casa Pia
DrawLossWinLossWin
- Oct 18 · at FC Alpendorada (A)1-0
- Oct 10 · v Santa Clara (H)0-1
- Sep 20 · at Estoril Praia (A)2-1
- Sep 12 · v FC Porto (H)1-4
- Sep 6 · at Vitória SC (A)0-0
| Last 10 games | CF Estrela Amadora | Casa Pia |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-5-2 | 3-1-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 20% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-4-4 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.