Liga Portugal (Portugal) · Sat, Sep 5 · 14:30 · CF Estrela Amadora vs Famalicão
Likeliest: Famalicão win · 38%
We make it 49% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 43%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
CF Estrela Amadora36%31%+5
OursMarket
Draw27%30%−3
OursMarket
Famalicão38%39%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 43% | +6 |
| Both teams score | 45% | 50% | −5 |
| Double chance 1X | 62% | 61% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 64% | 69% | −5 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 70% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 49% | 44% | +4 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
CF Estrela Amadora
DrawDrawDrawDrawWin
- Aug 30 · at CD Nacional (A)3-2
- Aug 15 · at FC Alverca (A)2-2
- Aug 8 · v Sporting (H)2-2
- May 16 · at Sporting Braga (A)2-2
- May 11 · v Famalicão (H)0-0
Famalicão
WinDrawLossLossDraw
- Aug 30 · v Gil Vicente (H)0-0
- Aug 23 · at Santa Clara (A)0-1
- Aug 16 · v Marítimo (H)1-2
- Aug 7 · at Estoril Praia (A)1-1
- May 16 · v Alverca (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | CF Estrela Amadora | Famalicão |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-4-5 | 2-6-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-4-4 | 2-5-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.