Liga MX (Mexico) · Sun, Oct 25 · 01:00 · CF Monterrey vs CD Guadalajara
Likeliest: CD Guadalajara win · 36%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 36% for the away win. The market says 36%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
CF Monterrey35%38%−3
OursMarket
Draw29%26%+3
OursMarket
CD Guadalajara36%36%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 54% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | 56% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 64% | 64% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 65% | 62% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 74% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 49% | 51% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
CF Monterrey
DrawWinDrawDrawWin
- Oct 19 · v CF Pachuca (H)2-1
- Oct 11 · at Club América (A)1-1
- Sep 26 · at Atlante FC (A)0-0
- Sep 20 · v Cruz Azul (H)1-0
- Sep 13 · v Tigres UANL (H)0-0
CD Guadalajara
WinDrawLossDrawDraw
- Oct 17 · v Tigres UANL (H)1-1
- Oct 11 · at Atlas FC (A)1-1
- Sep 26 · v Querétaro FC (H)0-2
- Sep 20 · at Club América (A)2-2
- Sep 14 · v Pumas UNAM (H)3-0
| Last 10 games | CF Monterrey | CD Guadalajara |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 5-4-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 3-6-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.