Liga MX (Mexico) · Mon, Oct 19 · 01:00 · CF Monterrey vs CF Pachuca
Likeliest: CF Monterrey win · 52%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 52% for the home win. The market says 52%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
CF Monterrey52%52%0
OursMarket
Draw25%24%+1
OursMarket
CF Pachuca23%24%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 58% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 59% | 58% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | 76% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 48% | 48% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 76% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 70% | 68% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
CF Monterrey
LossDrawWinDrawDraw
- Oct 11 · at Club América (A)1-1
- Sep 26 · at Atlante FC (A)0-0
- Sep 20 · v Cruz Azul (H)1-0
- Sep 13 · v Tigres UANL (H)0-0
- Sep 7 · at CD Toluca (A)0-2
CF Pachuca
WinWinDrawLossDraw
- Oct 11 · v Club Necaxa (H)3-3
- Sep 27 · at Santos Laguna (A)0-1
- Sep 21 · v Club Tijuana (H)2-2
- Sep 12 · at Atlante FC (A)3-0
- Sep 5 · at FC Juárez (A)2-0
| Last 10 games | CF Monterrey | CF Pachuca |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 3-4-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 4-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.