Leagues Cup (North & Central America) · Wed, Aug 26 · 00:30 · CF Monterrey vs Chicago Fire
Likeliest: CF Monterrey win · 48%
A 48% home win. The market says 38%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
CF Monterrey48%38%+10
OursMarket
Draw22%25%−3
OursMarket
Chicago Fire29%37%−7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 58% | −9 |
| Both teams score | 70% | 61% | +9 |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 63% | +7 |
| Double chance X2 | 52% | 62% | −10 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 75% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 62% | 51% | +11 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
CF Monterrey
LossWinDrawWinLoss
- Aug 22 · at Club León (A)0-2
- Aug 16 · v FC Juárez (H)6-1
- Aug 13 · v Nashville SC (H)0-0
- Aug 9 · at Inter Miami CF (A)2-1
- Aug 5 · v Orlando City SC (H)1-2
Chicago Fire
WinWinWinWinDraw
- Aug 22 · at New York Red Bulls (A)1-1
- Aug 19 · at Orlando City SC (A)2-1
- Aug 16 · v Portland Timbers (H)2-1
- Aug 14 · at Cruz Azul (A)2-1
- Aug 10 · v Santos Laguna (H)3-1
| Last 10 games | CF Monterrey | Chicago Fire |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 7-1-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 90% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-1-5 | 5-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.