Leagues Cup (North & Central America) · Thu, Aug 13 · 00:10 · CF Monterrey vs Nashville SC
Likeliest: CF Monterrey win · 46%
A tight one: we make it 46% for the home win. The market says 24%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
CF Monterrey46%24%+22
OursMarket
Draw25%25%0
OursMarket
Nashville SC29%51%−22
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 56% | −1 |
| Both teams score | 60% | 55% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 49% | +22 |
| Double chance X2 | 54% | 76% | −22 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 75% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 61% | 32% | +29 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
CF Monterrey
WinLossWinLossWin
- Aug 9 · at Inter Miami CF (A)2-1
- Aug 5 · v Orlando City SC (H)1-2
- Aug 2 · at Atlas FC (A)2-0
- Jul 26 · at Club Necaxa (A)1-2
- Jul 19 · v Santos Laguna (H)3-2
Nashville SC
WinLossDrawLossWin
- Aug 10 · v Atlético San Luis (H)4-1
- Aug 6 · v Club León (H)0-1
- Aug 1 · at DC United (A)2-2
- Jul 25 · at Orlando City SC (A)0-1
- Jul 23 · v CF Montréal (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | CF Monterrey | Nashville SC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-1-5 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.