Major League Soccer (USA) · Sat, Oct 24 · 17:30 · CF Montréal vs Nashville SC
Likeliest: Nashville SC win · 63%
Likely score: 0–1
A 63% away win. The market says 59%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
CF Montréal15%20%−4
OursMarket
Draw22%22%0
OursMarket
Nashville SC63%59%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 61% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | 58% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 37% | 41% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 85% | 80% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 78% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 19% | 25% | −6 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 1.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
CF Montréal
LossWinLossLossDraw
- Oct 18 · at Seattle Sounders FC (A)1-1
- Oct 14 · v Atlanta United (H)0-3
- Oct 10 · at Toronto FC (A)1-2
- Sep 26 · v FC Cincinnati (H)3-1
- Sep 19 · v Columbus Crew (H)0-2
Nashville SC
WinWinWinWinDraw
- Oct 18 · at San Jose Earthquakes (A)1-1
- Oct 15 · v Sporting Kansas City (H)4-0
- Oct 11 · at Austin FC (A)4-1
- Sep 27 · v Toronto FC (H)2-0
- Sep 20 · v Chicago Fire (H)3-0
| Last 10 games | CF Montréal | Nashville SC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-2-7 | 6-3-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 2.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-4-5 | 3-5-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.