Liga MX (Mexico) · Sun, Oct 11 · 23:15 · CF Pachuca vs Club Necaxa
Likeliest: CF Pachuca win · 57%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 57% for the home win. The market says 56%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
CF Pachuca57%56%+1
OursMarket
Draw24%24%+1
OursMarket
Club Necaxa19%20%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 57% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | 56% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 81% | 80% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 43% | 44% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 76% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 75% | 74% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
CF Pachuca
DrawWinWinDrawLoss
- Sep 27 · at Santos Laguna (A)0-1
- Sep 21 · v Club Tijuana (H)2-2
- Sep 12 · at Atlante FC (A)3-0
- Sep 5 · at FC Juárez (A)2-0
- Aug 29 · v CD Guadalajara (H)1-1
Club Necaxa
LossDrawLossLossLoss
- Sep 28 · v Club América (H)2-4
- Sep 19 · at Atlético San Luis (A)1-3
- Sep 12 · v Club Puebla (H)0-1
- Sep 6 · at Tigres UANL (A)1-1
- Aug 29 · v Cruz Azul (H)1-3
| Last 10 games | CF Pachuca | Club Necaxa |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 1-2-7 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 2.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 1-3-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.