Liga MX (Mexico) · Thu, Oct 22 · 03:00 · CF Pachuca vs Cruz Azul
Likeliest: Cruz Azul win · 37%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 37% for the away win. The market says 37%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
CF Pachuca34%37%−3
OursMarket
Draw29%27%+2
OursMarket
Cruz Azul37%37%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 56% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 62% | 61% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 63% | 63% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 66% | 63% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 73% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 48% | 50% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
CF Pachuca
WinDrawLossDrawLoss
- Oct 19 · at CF Monterrey (A)1-2
- Oct 11 · v Club Necaxa (H)3-3
- Sep 27 · at Santos Laguna (A)0-1
- Sep 21 · v Club Tijuana (H)2-2
- Sep 12 · at Atlante FC (A)3-0
Cruz Azul
WinLossDrawDrawWin
- Oct 18 · v FC Juárez (H)5-0
- Oct 12 · at Pumas UNAM (A)3-3
- Sep 26 · v CD Toluca (H)3-3
- Sep 20 · at CF Monterrey (A)0-1
- Sep 13 · v Club América (H)4-3
| Last 10 games | CF Pachuca | Cruz Azul |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 0-3-2 | 5-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.