Primera Nacional (Argentina) · Sat, Oct 17 · 20:00 · Chaco For Ever vs Central Norte de Salta
Likeliest: Chaco For Ever win · 50%
We make it 42% for both teams to score. The market says 38%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Chaco For Ever50%51%−1
OursMarket
Draw33%31%+2
OursMarket
Central Norte de Salta17%18%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 62% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 32% | 33% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 16% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 42% | 38% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 83% | 82% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 50% | 49% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 67% | 69% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 75% | 74% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 0.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Chaco For Ever
DrawWinLossDrawWin
- Oct 10 · at Deportivo Madryn (A)2-1
- Oct 3 · v Defensores de Belgrano (H)2-2
- Sep 26 · at Ciudad de Bolivar (A)1-2
- Sep 20 · v Almirante Brown (H)1-0
- Sep 13 · at Mitre (A)0-0
Central Norte de Salta
DrawLossDrawDrawDraw
- Oct 10 · v Club Ferro Carril Oeste (H)1-1
- Oct 3 · v Racing de Córdoba (H)1-1
- Sep 26 · at Deportivo Madryn (A)0-0
- Sep 20 · v Defensores de Belgrano (H)0-1
- Sep 12 · at Ciudad de Bolivar (A)0-0
| Last 10 games | Chaco For Ever | Central Norte de Salta |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 1-8-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 10% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 60% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-1-0 | 0-4-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.