Serie A (Brazil) · Mon, Oct 12 · 22:30 · Chapecoense vs Athletico
Likeliest: Athletico win · 47%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 47% for the away win. The market says 46%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Chapecoense24%27%−3
OursMarket
Draw29%27%+2
OursMarket
Athletico47%46%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 49% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 54% | 53% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 53% | 54% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 76% | 73% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 73% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 33% | 37% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Chapecoense
LossWinLossDrawLoss
- Oct 7 · at Vitória (A)0-4
- Sep 19 · at Atlético Mineiro (A)1-1
- Sep 12 · v Internacional (H)1-2
- Sep 6 · at Corinthians (A)2-1
- Aug 30 · at Grêmio (A)1-3
Athletico
DrawLossDrawWinDraw
- Oct 8 · v Atlético Mineiro (H)2-2
- Sep 20 · v Bahia (H)2-1
- Sep 12 · at Coritiba (A)3-3
- Sep 6 · at Cruzeiro (A)1-3
- Aug 30 · v Fluminense (H)3-3
| Last 10 games | Chapecoense | Athletico |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 4-4-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-3-5 | 5-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.