Copa do Brasil (Brazil) · Sun, Aug 2 · 21:30 · Chapecoense vs Cruzeiro
Likeliest: Cruzeiro win · 53%
A 53% away win. The market says 47%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Chapecoense22%24%−2
OursMarket
Draw24%28%−4
OursMarket
Cruzeiro53%47%+6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 42% | +6 |
| Both teams score | 51% | 47% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 47% | 53% | −6 |
| Double chance X2 | 78% | 76% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 72% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 29% | 34% | −4 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Chapecoense
LossLossLossLossDraw
- Jul 25 · at Santos (A)2-2
- Jul 23 · v Flamengo (H)0-4
- Jul 17 · at Bahia (A)0-2
- May 31 · at Palmeiras (A)0-1
- May 24 · at Cruzeiro (A)1-2
Cruzeiro
WinDrawWinLossWin
- Jul 31 · at Coritiba (A)1-0
- Jul 26 · v Botafogo (H)0-1
- Jul 23 · at Internacional (A)2-1
- May 31 · v Fluminense (H)1-1
- May 29 · v Barcelona Guayaquil (H)4-0
| Last 10 games | Chapecoense | Cruzeiro |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-2-7 | 6-3-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-4-5 | 5-4-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.