Serie A (Brazil) · Tue, Nov 3 · 22:30 · Chapecoense vs Mirassol
Likeliest: Mirassol win · 45%
Likely scores: 1–1 12% · 1–2 11% · 0–1 9%
A tight one: we make it 45% for the away win. The market says 43%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Chapecoense27%30%−3
OursMarket
Draw28%26%+2
OursMarket
Mirassol45%43%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 54% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | 56% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 55% | 57% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 73% | 70% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 74% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 38% | 41% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Chapecoense
LossLossLossWinLoss
- Oct 28 · at Red Bull Bragantino (A)0-3
- Oct 24 · v Fluminense (H)2-1
- Oct 17 · at Botafogo (A)0-1
- Oct 12 · v Athletico (H)1-4
- Oct 7 · at Vitória (A)0-4
Mirassol
DrawLossWinDrawLoss
- Oct 30 · at Corinthians (A)0-2
- Oct 24 · v São Paulo (H)1-1
- Oct 16 · v Internacional (H)2-0
- Oct 11 · at Bahia (A)0-1
- Oct 7 · at Red Bull Bragantino (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Chapecoense | Mirassol |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-1-6 | 3-4-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-5 | 1-4-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.