USL Championship (USA) · Sat, Oct 24 · 22:00 · Charleston Battery vs Indy Eleven
Likeliest: Charleston Battery win · 61%
Likely score: 2–0
A tight one: we make it 61% for the home win. The market says 58%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Charleston Battery61%58%+2
OursMarket
Draw22%23%−1
OursMarket
Indy Eleven17%19%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 57% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 54% | 54% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 83% | 81% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 40% | 42% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 77% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 78% | 75% | +3 |
| Expected goals | 1.9 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Charleston Battery
WinWinLossDrawWin
- Oct 17 · at Miami FC (A)2-1
- Oct 14 · at Hartford Athletic (A)1-1
- Oct 10 · v Louisville City FC (H)0-2
- Sep 26 · v Rhode Island FC (H)2-0
- Sep 19 · v Monterey Bay FC (H)1-0
Indy Eleven
LossLossDrawLossLoss
- Oct 17 · at Louisville City FC (A)1-4
- Oct 10 · v FC Tampa Bay Rowdies (H)1-3
- Oct 3 · at Loudoun United FC (A)1-1
- Sep 30 · at Rhode Island FC (A)0-1
- Sep 26 · v Miami FC (H)0-2
| Last 10 games | Charleston Battery | Indy Eleven |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 1-3-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-1-2 | 1-2-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.