Leagues Cup (North & Central America) · Tue, Aug 11 · 23:30 · Charlotte FC vs CF Pachuca
Likeliest: Charlotte FC win · 37%
We make it 57% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 44%.
13 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Charlotte FC37%52%−14
OursMarket
Draw27%24%+2
OursMarket
CF Pachuca36%24%+12
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 56% | −13 |
| Both teams score | 57% | 59% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 64% | 76% | −12 |
| Double chance X2 | 63% | 48% | +14 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 76% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 51% | 68% | −17 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Charlotte FC
DrawWinLossWinWin
- Aug 7 · v Atlas FC (H)2-0
- Aug 5 · v Pumas UNAM (H)3-0
- Aug 2 · at Chicago Fire (A)1-2
- Jul 25 · at New York Red Bulls (A)2-0
- Jul 23 · v Atlanta United (H)2-2
CF Pachuca
WinLossLossLossLoss
- Aug 7 · at Columbus Crew (A)1-2
- Aug 4 · at FC Cincinnati (A)1-3
- Aug 2 · at Club León (A)0-1
- Jul 27 · v Querétaro FC (H)1-2
- Jul 18 · at Pumas UNAM (A)3-0
| Last 10 games | Charlotte FC | CF Pachuca |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 1-0-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.