USL League One (USA) · Sat, Oct 10 · 23:00 · Charlotte Independence vs New York Cosmos
Likeliest: Charlotte Independence win · 64%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 64% for the home win. The market says 62%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Charlotte Independence64%62%+2
OursMarket
Draw19%20%−1
OursMarket
New York Cosmos17%18%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 86% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 72% | 73% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 44% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 65% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 83% | 82% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 36% | 38% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 81% | 80% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 79% | 78% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 2.8 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Charlotte Independence
WinDrawWinDrawWin
- Oct 3 · at Sarasota Paradise (A)3-2
- Sep 26 · v Fort Wayne FC (H)0-0
- Sep 19 · at Richmond Kickers (A)2-1
- Sep 17 · at AC Boise (A)1-1
- Sep 12 · v Westchester SC (H)5-4
New York Cosmos
WinLossLossWinLoss
- Oct 3 · at FC Naples (A)1-2
- Sep 26 · v Richmond Kickers (H)3-2
- Sep 19 · v Westchester SC (H)1-2
- Sep 12 · at AC Boise (A)1-2
- Sep 5 · at Fort Wayne FC (A)4-2
| Last 10 games | Charlotte Independence | New York Cosmos |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-3-1 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.3 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-1-1 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.